Utes vs. Buffs a Rivalry Renewed

Rumble in the Rockies

Most of us don't know this because we became fans while Utah was in the Mountain West and rarely played Colorado but the Utah Colorado game dates back to 1903 and Colorado is the 5th team most played by Utah. They have met 59 and the Buffs hold the series lead 31-25-3. 

This rivalry was a bit unknown to me and I'm pretty sure to most Utes fans because before 2011 Utah and Colorado played in 1962.... That was literally 25 years before I was even born. Apparently it was a pretty heated rivalry and the last two meetings have been no different. 

Two years ago Utah had an opportunity to play for the first ever PAC-12 Championship, all they had to do was beat if not the worst team one of the worst teams in the PAC-12 in Utah I might add. It was a cold wintery day at Rice-Eccles Stadium and the Utes came out looking flat and lost a close one 17-14 with Coleman Peterson (a swear word to some Ute fans) missing 3 field goals that game. 

Last year Utah met the Buffs in Boulder. Utah had come into the game with a 4-7 record. Neither team was playing for a bowl but Utah wanted revenge from the previous years disappointment. Utah took the lead 35-28 with 8:41 left in the 4th quarter. Utah then kicked off the ball to Marques Mosely who took the kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown to tie the ball game 35-35 with 8:25 left to play. Colorado had purposely been kicking it away from Reggie Dunn who had taken 3 kick returns previously to this game. They decided or accidentally kicked to him and Reggie made them pay with a 100 yard kick return for a touchdown leaving 8:12 left to play. Utah held on to win it 42-35

This being said, Utah was forced to end the last game rivalry with BYU when Utah entered the PAC-12. Although BYU is Utah's biggest rival Colorado has reignited an old rivalry that has been quite entertaining and intense to watch. It is most definitely not that as big between the fan bases as say a BYU Utah game or a Colorado Colorado State game but for the past two years and for the next few, I'm perfectly satisfied playing the Buffs. 

Today's game is another year playing for a positive note. Utah is looking to leave their seniors with something positive to before they leave. They unfortunately didn't make a bowl but they can at least go out with a bang. Colorado is looking to do the same thing. I'll keep my statistical analysis brief this morning but here are a few to look at: 

Colorado:

Offense:

Both QB's for the Buffs have thrown for over 1,000 yards against a not so easy schedule. Colorado's wide receiver Paul Richardson has racked up over 1,200 yards receiving this season and will be a thorn in Utah's side all game long. Utah will need to know where he is on the field at all times. The Buffs are just average at rushing the football, nothing spectacular, 1,400 yards between 9 rushers. Colorado will give the ball to two primary backs. 

Defense: 

On average the Buffs give up 503 yards of offense for the opposing team. Colorado gives up 218 yards rushing and 283 yards in the air. Needless to say, not very impressive. Colorado has played some pretty prolific offenses but, they haven't seemed to stop too many people. Seven out of the last nine opponents have scored at least 40 points (Buffs have won 2 out of the last 9). 

Utah: 

Offense:

Adam Schulz (minus the terrible pick six he threw last week and I'm only mentioning that one because the other was due to Norwood bouncing the ball up off his hands) played a decent game. He didn't run the zone read the way he should have keeping the ball at least once but, he threw for 347 yards. Not too shabby and after those two pick six's he didn't throw another one all game. Utah also ran the ball with Kelvin York decently efficiently. Look for Utah to come out swinging and run/pass all over the field. Adam Schulz after really only 3 games of play time (one against one of the toughest pass defenses in the nation, Oregon) has thrown for 775 yards. For a backup this kid impresses me but he still has some work to do. He needs to sell the zone read. If Schulz doesn't keep it every now and then and burn the D with his feet, there is no reason to respect that threat and the D can focus in on the running back. 

Defense: 

Utah gives up nearly 100 less yards on defense at 404 yards per game. 137 yards on the ground and 266 in the air. All things considered, that's not too shabby with the offenses they have faced. Colorado has seen more success in the air than they have through the air which could spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E for Utah. Utah will need to really find Richardson on the field and stick a CB and safety on him for some over the top protection. 

Prediction:

Utah: 47

Colorado: 27

Schulz: 22 for 32, 315 yards, 3 TD's, 1 INT
Poole: 22 carries 134 yards, 1 TD

Defense: 350 yards, 3 TD's, 2 Field Goals

Utah Needs Coach Whittinham

Recently Brad Rock a writer for the Deseret News published an article talking about Coach Kyle Whittingham's coaching status for the rest of this year and for the future. It's titled, "Whittingham Should Get One More Year" If you would like to read the whole article please feel free to click on that link. To be honest and being respectful I have to say to Mr. Rock that I do not agree with your analysis of Kyle Whittingham's tenure status at Utah.

If Utah doesn't go to a bowl game next year, I will be sad. More sad than I am this year but, I will not be calling for Kyle Whittingham's head even then. If you look at the progress that Utah has shown I don't know how you can call for Kyle's head. There are 3 things I want to point out as reason's why Kyle has 100% of my confidence.

Progress:

Let me show you the strength of schedule and how we competed over the past 3 years:


2011:
Utah played in only a couple big games that year. They played BYU, USC, Arizona State, and Georgia Tech (Sun Bowl). In those games the Utes went 2-2. The rest of the season thy played good teams but nobody else was notable for being all that great.

Total Passing Yards:        2,252
Total Rushing Yards:       1,789
Total Defense:                  4,578
Record:                               8-5
# of Ranked Teams Played: 1
# of QB's:      2

2012:
Utah played in a couple more bigger games. BYU was better, USC game to town,  Utah played #8 Oregon State. Utah was 1-3 in those games.

Total Passing Yards:        2,288
Total Rushing Yards:       1,605
Total Defense:                  4,163
Record:                               5-8
# of Ranked Teams Played:  3
# of QB's:       4

2013:
Utah played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. Utah has played in quite a few notable games this year. They started playing against a really good Utah State team (with Chuckie Keeton), BYU, UCLA, Stanford, ASU, and Oregon. Utah was 3-3 in these games.

Total Passing Yards:        2,602
Total Rushing Yards:       1,769
Total Defense:                  4,451
Record:                               5-7
# of Ranked Teams Played:  4
# of QB's:       2
*with one more game still yet to be played against Colorado.

Perhaps you didn't catch it but, Utah has played the toughest schedule since Kyle Whittingham has been coach and yet the Utes have been more productive and the defense has roughly been the same. All things considered Utah hasn't had lady luck on their side, fortunately they have had Kyle Whittingham.

Decision Making:

Let's go back to the Utah State game this year. Utah was down 23-17 with 2:24 left to go in the 3rd quarter. Utah went for an onside kick which ended up being the difference in the game.

Coach Whitt also helped make some crucial decisions to help Utah come back against Oregon State and also almost come back against UCLA as well. Kyle hasn't been totally free from mistakes but ultimately I believe it has been the coaching that has made up for the lack of athleticism on the field in some positions.

While playing Oregon State coach Whitt, Erickson, Johnson put together a great come-from-behind last minute drive to tie the ball game and send the game into overtime. A bad zone-read by Travis Wilson forced Utah to kick a field goal. Three plays after Oregon State took over in overtime they threw the game winning touchdown pass.

UCLA game was another onside kick recovery and with 6 interceptions Utah still had a chance to win the game. Once again, it wasn't all the athletes on the field but it was in part the minds of those off the field.

Stanford was a game won because of great coaching. Stanford's head coach David Shaw gave the coaching staff proper recognition for out coaching him and his staff. By the way, did you know this was arguably the largest upset in Utah history?!

Recruiting:

I'm not sure if you have noticed but Utah has been getting much better recruits. Kyle made some mistakes by focusing on the defense and not making a QB a priority over the past few years and wasn't until last year that he got a couple of good QB's. Connor Manning and Brandon Cox.  Both of which haven't played this year.

This comes to my next point that ties in coach Whitt's decision making with recruiting. Late into the season Travis Wilson is out with concussion and later we find out he may be out for good. A lot of Utah fans were calling Connor Manning's name and wanting Adam Schulz to sit and let the freshman burn his redshirt and play in the final 2 or 3 games of the season. I have to apologize to anyone who has had to listen to these fans. Clearly they don't understand what playing in these final games could potentially do to either one of these kids and the longevity of the Utes' program. By letting Manning play in 2 games he burns his eligibility to play an entire year. Is Maning good? Sure. Is he great? Don't know and he could be great but he also could be a bust since he would only have 2 games to play. I applaud coach Whitt's decision to keep the redshirts on both Connor Manning and Brandon Cox to save them for a time when they can really make a difference.

Utah has started to see more 4-star and even a couple 5-star recruits come in. They are starting to see more success in key-role players' positions. Even with a losing season Utah should expect to see some good recruits who maybe are getting passed up by the Stanford's and Oregon's. They have seen that Utah can compete with the big boys. It can and will help Utah's cause. Now if Utah had won all those games it would have helped their cause even more.

Coach Whittingham has a good long while to coach and fail before I lose my trust in him. He has been doing a great job with what he has to play with and I think anyone is a fool to think otherwise. Educate yourselves, look at the bigger picture and perhaps you will start to see what I see; a team coming together, playing better even against tougher competition, a great coaching staff who still has room to improve, more talent coming, a better offense, injured players coming back, young team with more experience. To be fully honest, I'm not surprised with everything Utah has faced that they aren't going to a bowl game. They have exceeded expectations for me and next year I expect they will be a lot better and you Mr. Rock and all the other pessimistic Utah fans will be singing praises to coach Whitt and his staff.



 

Wazz-up Wazzu?

After a disappointing but expected loss to Oregon the Utes hit the road again this week to Wazzu! This is a due or die week for the Utes. After missing a bowl last season Utah's goal has been to make a bowl game and at 4-6 that goal is still achievable. The unfortunate truth is, they have to win out. They have to go up to Pullman to face an pass heavy offense Washington State Cougars.

Can Utah Beat Wazzu?

Aboslutely! There are just a few things that Utah needs to do to increase their chance on winning:

Defense:

Shut down the pass
Take the ball away
Force Wazzu out of their comfort zone

Offense:

Run the ball
Use Jake Murphy
Protect the ball

Stats:

There are some interesting stats about Wazzu I would like to share. This whole season I have heard about how Wazzu passes and passes a lot. Just how much? let me give you some insight into this.

Out of 754 offensive plays for Wazzu this year 577 have been passing plays. 76% of all Wazzu's plays are passing plays. Between Halliday and Apodaca Wazzu has 3,604 yards through the air (Halliday claiming 3,417 of those yards). This doesn't include the 32 rushes Halliday has (for -96 yards), the majority no doubt were passing plays he has been sacked or tackled for a loss.


Gabe Marks (#9) has 63 receptions for 721 yards. He is by far Wazzu's leading receiver. the Cougars have 5 other receivers with 30+ receptions, 2 with 20-29 receptions and a 4 with 19 or less receptions. Wazzu spreads the ball around and they have enough play makers to get the ball to.

Halliday is quick to release the ball as well. From the small brief amounts of tape I was able to watch from this past week against Arizona, a team Utah fell to 35-24. Wazzu was most successful passing down the field when they passed right around 3 seconds or less.

Wazzu has 183 rushing attempts between 6 players. They have tallied up 570 yards. There are 115 players who currently have more than 570 yards rushing. 115 individual players who have single handedly rushed more than the entire Wazzu team combined. Including James "Bubba" Poole for Utah (596 yards).

On the flip side, Halliday has 3,417 passing yards and is good for the 4th most in the nation. Which QB has the most passing yards on the season you ask? Sean Mannion from Oregon State with 3,860 yards. The Utes fell to Mannion in overtime earlier this season 51-48. Mannion had his way with Utah's secondary throwing for 443 yards.

I want to compare Utah's numbers and even BYU's to get some good comparison on how much Wazzu really does pass:

                                          Wazzu                         Utah                           BYU                    
  Passing Attempts              577                              312                             343
  Passing Yards                  3,604                           2,255                          2,383
  Rushing Attempts            183                               394                             525
  Rushing Yards                 570                              1,635                          2,654
  Longest Reception            72                                  80                              43
  Longest Rush                    24                                  65                              70

*Stats according to ESPN.com

Utah will have to slow down Wazzu's passing offense. Luckily rushing the pass is something Utah does pretty well. Currently Utah is #1 in the nation in sacks with 36. Trevor Reilly (8.5 sacks) has been an absolute beast this year and has been a great leader. He will need to get off the ball and force Halliday out of the pocket and hopefully into the sweet dominating arms of another Utah defender.




Utah has a new problem to spend a brief moment discussing. Adam Schulz is the new starting QB. Some Utah fans are calling for Conner Manning or Brandon Cox to burn their redshirt and start the final two games. To these fans I say, educate yourselves and think about what you are saying rationally. Adam Schulz is a fine QB. He has a lot of potential and played pretty well considering he was up against the 8th best defense in the nation. Schulz has a lot of work to do and will really need to connect with his WR's more if he expects to win on Saturday. Last week Schulz was 13-30 for 181 yards. Oregon's defense gives up on average of 355 yards and Wazzu gives up 447 yards. I expect Schulz to have a pretty good game and throw for 250 yards.

Summary:

Wazzu = A LOT of offense and even more so passing! They pass quickly and Halliday looks down the field and CAN deliver the ball in tight spaces. Wazzu is a lot better than most Utah fans have and will give them credit for. They gain a lot of yards but don't necessarily score a lot.

Utah - Focus needs to be on the run game. Give Schulz some time to pass. Get pressure on Halliday and stay on WR's like their hopes of a bowl game depends on it. Score more than 30 points. Force turnovers. Use Jake Murphy, he is a stud and a great asset to the offense, use him more.


Utah can win against Wazzu on Saturday. It will be a lot more difficult than Utes' fans think but it is still a very winnable game for Utah. Utah has to focus on passing defense and let the rushes happen. Shut down Halliday and his receivers and you shut down the only strength Washington State has on offense. On offense Utah has to run the ball and run the ball consistently to open up the offense to passing. Rushing effectively should give Adam Schulz some extra time to make the right decision and put the ball on the money.

                   Predictions:

                      Utah:     35

                      Wazzu:  21

             Schulz:   23-35, 247 yards

             Poole:   22 carries, 104 yards

         Defense: 

                    Pass:   250 yards

                   Rush:  32 yards

                  Sacks:  4

                  INT's:  2
Fumble Recovery: 1

Deepest Condolences to you Mr. Wilson

Ute Nation was shocked to find out that our starting QB will be out the rest of the season and possibly done for the rest of his life. I certainly was taken back when I saw the news and immediately felt so bad for Travis. Part of me felt a little disappointed because I really thought that Travis had a lot of potential and could really do some very impressive things over the next two years. Ultimately, I felt so sorry for Travis. You could tell that he loved to play the game and (despite his most recent games) has really been coming into his own and just starting to find out who he is as a QB.



Travis was sidelined with a concussion and as doctors were checking him out they found a pre-existing condition that either has yet to be determined as far as severity or the details don't want to be shared at this moment. Either way, it is serious enough to totally pull Travis. When I thought of this it was hard to be sad and more grateful for the concussion. Who knows, maybe nothing would have ever happened but what if something did? What if Travis got hit just wrong and he had permanent damage or worse, death? I can't help but be so thankful that Travis had a concussion so the doctors could find this condition before anything major happened to him. I know this could possibly be the end of his career but it certainly could have been a lot worse. Good luck Travis! You have been a great QB and we hope for the best!

Top: Travis trying to avoid a Stanford defender in this years upset
Left: Travis throwing the ball
Right: After the upset over #5 Stanford. Certainly a game to go down in Utah history

Side Order of Duck with a Twist...

I was all set to do my weekly prediction when I received an update last night. Previous to this update I received an different update that told me that Oregon's QB was planning on playing with a sprained MCL. When I read that, I literally wanted to jump with joy. Not that Mariota was injured. That isn't cool and I hope he has a recovery as fast as he runs but rather, because it gave Utah a chance to really upset Oregon and do what they do best, get after the QB. 

I was hopeful that Utah's offense would come out swinging and leave nothing behind on the field. So I picked up my phone, looked at the update, "Wilson out for Saturday's game against Oregon with a concussion. Schulz named starter." My first reaction was, "well shoot." After a few moments of deep breathing into a brown paper bag I realized that Adam Schulz will have his first chance to start and finish a game. I have said before that he hasn't been a great QB this season because the Utes have put him in for the 2nd half of games that he either needed to come back to win or, try to hold on to the lead/increase the lead. He hasn't been the most efficient back up QB and I understand that. To be honest, I blame it on the fact that he has never played. He isn't used to the game speed and by the time he finds a rhythm the game is over. Now that justification aside he Schulz is 22-45 at nearly 50% for 247 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He isn't an Alex Smith (yet) but he can add a spark to the offense they seem to desperately need. 

What people knock Schulz about:

Running ability

This to me is ridiculous. Sure Travis has shown Utah nation that he can get out and run. But is Travis Wilson a prolific runner who breaks tackles and makes things happen on his feet all the time? Absolutely not! He has had some good runs and especially last week against ASU Wilson broke free and converted some key first downs for Utah. He doesn't however WOW me as a runner though. Compare Adam Schulz. Is Schulz a crazy out of the pocket scrambler? Nope. Comparing Wilson's and Schulz's running style isn't fair because we haven't seem very many Schulz runs. He has picked up a couple crucial first downs with his feet and what I like about Schulz more than I like about Wilson is how HARD the kid runs. He takes off and takes off with a purpose, something you don't always see from Wilson.

Passing ability

Sure Schulz doesn't have as many completions as Wilson. Schulz has played a fraction of the time and has a fraction of snaps to create some chemistry with his wide receivers.  One thing that might hurt Schulz in this game against Oregon is not only how fast Oregon is (we will get to that in a minute) but how Utah’s WR's don't seem to handle the fast ball (or the cheese if you will) all too well. Utah's best WR's Drez Anderson frequently drops the short cross route pass from Wilson because it looks like the ball is coming in hot. Schulz has a cannon for an arm which could end up hurting the Utes more than it helps because the WR's aren't used to catching his throws plus add the rain factor (I know it never rains at Autzen...) and that could spell D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R for the Utes. Or it could be a surprise that no one expects and Utah could sneak up on Oregon. 

Now let's talk about Oregon. The Ducks defense give up a whopping 17 points again which is good for the 10th best in the nation. Ducks defense allows 317 yards for opposing offenses and takes 596 yards for their own offense. The Ducks nearly double the amount of yards they give up. They are fast, deep, fierce. 

Since the lost last week I have a feeling the Ducks are looking to really prove that last week as an anomaly and they should be in the top 10. They are certainly looking for revenge and it doesn’t help the Utes that they are the only team to beat Stanford this year.

Utah however, has been surprising on defense and lacking on offense. I expect this game to be no different. Certianly I hope that Adam Schulz can get a good rhythm going and show that he isn’t a Jon Hays type backup and can compete for the starting QB position. Also I think the “Play Conner Manning” movement is ridiculous. If he was the best QB he would be playing. The fact of the matter is, he isn’t. He still needs work and there is no reason to burn his red-shirt for one or three games. We have talent with Travis and Adam and can snag two more wins before the season is over.

Last Word:

Utah tends to come out hot and Oregon has been starting slow. I wouldn’t be surprised if Utah gets up early or at least keeps up early but Oregon is a second half team and clearly Utah isn’t. Utah has lost leads and games in the second half and especially the 4^th quarter. Look for Oregon to run a fast paced game because Utah doesn’t do well when teams snap the ball with more than 20 seconds left on the play clock.

Prediction:

I don’t know why but I had a gut feeling going into this game and I’m going to stick with it. Despite all my analysis I just have a weird feeling like Utah might be able to pull this one off. They have a great coaching staff and guys that are willing to listen. Look for the upset in Autzen.

Utah: 34

Oregon: 28

Go Utes.

Classic Utah...

Utah had a very disappointing loss on Saturday. Once again the defense showed up and almost shut down the 4th most prolific offense in the nation. With the lead in the 4th quarter the Utes couldn't hold on as a struggling offense (and questionable conservative play calling) halted the Utes' progression  a the defense allowed two touchdowns to seal the one point victory for ASU. This game is essentially what Utah Football is about this season. Close but no cigar football. I suppose the Utes have had one cigar... it was a nice one (Stanford) but have been so close they could almost taste it but eventually fell short.

Let's take a look at how the Utes played:


                                        ASU: 20   Utah:19
1st Downs                           20            12
Total Yards                         293           247
Passing                               144            121
Rushing                              149            126
Penalties                             3-14           7-80
3rd Down Conversions 3-13       5-18
4th Down Conversions 0-0            2-2
Turnovers                           1                2
Possession                          27:22         32:38

Utah's Defense deserves some serious accolades. ASU's offense has been averaging nearly 500 yards per game and over 43 points per game. Utah held ASU to under 300 yards and just 20 points. Less than half what they usually score. Utah's defense was punishing and almost relentless. Utah had 6 sacks and held ASU to just 3-13 on 3rd down conversions. One of the more impressive stats of the game is that Utah almost intercepted the ball 3 times. It's sad that an almost interception is considered good but the fact of the matter is, in most games we don't even come close to intercepting one ball.

One of the keys to this game was winning the turnover battle. Utah had that game won until the final two possessions of the game. Wilson threw a ball that looked like it should have sailed out of bounds and lived to play another down but unfortunately he didn't put enough on it and it was intercepted on an athletic snag by Robert Nelson of ASU. Wilson's second interception came just a few moments later when he threw up the middle and the pass was straight up picked off by the defensive tackle Will Sutton.

If Utah wants to be a major player int he PAC-12 and if Wilson wants to lead them, he has to learn to throw the ball away. Wilson has plenty of interceptions this year off of ill advised throws as he is trying to squeeze the ball into a highly defensive congested area. Rarely has it worked out. Let's just live to play another down Mr. Wilson.

Utah appeared to have some momentum going into half-time but lost steam in the 4th quarter. The quarterback play, running back play, and especially the offensive line play was frustrating and abysmal during most of the game. In fact I believe Wilson was 2-18 passing at one point. The only thing keeping Utah in the game was Wilson's legs. As his pocket collapsed (nearly every play) he would escape somehow and scurry his way for a few yards to keep the drive alive. With out that, Utah had no chance in that game. Also because Utah was playing at home that gave them another chance. The Utes this season have played FAR better at home than away.

The Utes are good. They have a great defense getting after the quarterback. Currently the Utes rank 2nd in the nation in sacks on the year (side note: those surrounding the Utes in this stat have 17 and 13 INT's. Utah has 2). Utah's D played well and slowed down a stellar offense but unfortunately Utah's own offense couldn't find any answers late in the game and ultimately fell to ASU.

Bringing it Home Against Arizona State

It's been quite the past few weeks. Utah got embarrassed in the Coliseum by a USC team who was injured and frankly not as nearly as talented as years past. Utah held USC's offense to 230 yards and 19 points but failed to score a touchdown and put a dismal 200 yards and 3 points. It was less than impressive and I think gave most people the confirmation that the win against Stanford was in fact an anomaly. To that I have to agree and disagree. Here is why:

Utah has played every loss close. The biggest loss this year was against USC by 16 points. The game never felt out of reach for the Utes and they were just a couple well executed plays away from not necessarily winning the game but at least making the game closer. The Utes have a good squad and in some areas they are really excelling but they have a few weaknesses that are really hurting them. Those weaknesses I will talk about later when in my Arizona State game analysis. Just as a side note, he rest of Utah's losses were Arizona 11, UCLA 7, Oregon St. 3.

See a pattern?

Here is where I am not feeling so good. USC 16, Arizona 11, UCLA 7, Oregon State 3... Let's look at this chronologically. Oregon State 3, UCLA 7, Arizona 11, USC 16. Utah historically (in my very narrow point of view) has generally had a slow start to their season and pick things up as the season progresses. This year has been the opposite. We have seen a HUGE decrease in offensive production from the first game to this past game against USC. Let's take a look at total yards from Utah from the top: Utah State - 450, Weber State - 628, Oregon State - 539, BYU - 402, UCLA - 387, Stanford - 410, Arizona - 329, USC - 201.

is it just ironic that Utahs worst offensive productions were also the two worst losses of the season to date? I don't think so. Utahs defense has really started to step up and show some real progress. Unfortunately the offense has been slow, inconsistent, and sometimes down right difficult to watch at times. To be honest Utah has reminded me of the BYU from last year. An offense that doesn't deserve their good defense.

Let's take a look at Utah's production (or lack there of) over the last two years against Arizona State:

2012:

Utah: 7 AZ State: 37
Passing: 117 Passing: 372
Rushing: 92 Rushing: 140
TY: 209 TY: 512
Turnovers: 3 Turnovers: 0
Penalties: 6-53 Penalties: 8-51


2011:


Utah: 14 AZ State: 35
Passing: 199 Passing: 325
Rushing: 121 Rushing: 74
TY: 320 TY: 399
Turnovers: 5 Turnovers: 0
Penalties: 7-71 Penalties: 10-77

Clearly Utah has had very poor performance against this Arizona State team over the past two years. I do believe that the Utes are a much more complete team this year but I'm not entirely convinced they are a better team than Arizona State this year. One of the biggest upsides to this game is that it is at home.

Let's also not forget that Utah has played the 2nd toughest schedule to date in the nation. 

The fact that they are 4-4 with that schedule is pretty awesome.

How much of a factor do you believe playing at home, again, will have for the Utes?

This game probably wouldn't be a game if it was in Arizona. Utah has had a chance in most of their games purely because they have been at home. It is pretty clear that the Utah home crowd has helped cause false starts and silly penalties on the other team and has helped Utah. With the crowd behind the Utes, they could win.

What does Utah need to do to slow down ASU's offense (6th in the nation in PPG)?

Here is where I get scared. Utah's pass defense has been steadily improving but I am afraid of our style of man-to-man defense may in fact be taken advantage of by a good quarterback and good wide receivers. I feel confident the Utes can play well enough to shut down Arizona States' rushing attack. It's AZ States' passing attack I'm nervous about.

What do the the Utes need to do to slow down ASU's offense? Get to the quarterback! It's as simple as that. The Utes have to dial up some blitz's and bring pressure to force early throws and ill advised throws.

What does the U offense need to do to get back on track?

Establish the run game. Sources say that Kelvin York (13) will be getting most of of the reps. He is our bruiser back that has great speed but has a tendency to bull people over and is a more physical style runner which may give the Utes a different look at offense. Bubba Poole will still play and is still a great back but perhaps he will have another 100 yards game and yet again prove he is the man for the job. Either way the Utes have to get their run game back on track. With out a good run attack the Utes will play the same way they have played the past two games... poorly.

How do you think ASU stacks up to the other teams you've played in the PAC-12 this year? 

They are a middle grade team. I don't know. I think I'm super tainted because I thought they should have lost that Wisconsin game. If they had lost that game I don't believe they would be in the top 25. They are certainly a good team but I don't think they are atop the leaderboard in the PAC-12. They are however a really tough team that has size and speed. They certainly are a force to be reckoned with but aren't the greatest team in the PAC-12. They have losses to Stanford and Notre Dame (and Wisconsin in my book). One a really good team the other is a mediocre team. You can decide who is who.

What do the Utes need to do, in your opinion, to have this season be considered a "success?" 

Make a bowl game. I'm different than most fans. I believed at the beginning of the season that Utah was only going to win 4 games. Right now the Utes have matched that. Anything above and beyond that is overachieving in my book. I do believe however with Utah starting off more hot than they usually do that they can now win 6 and get to a bowl game. It still isn't going to be easy because Washington State has a good offense and heavens knows the Utes have had a diffucult time beating Colorado at the end of the season. I'm happy now but I would be a whole lot happier if Utah got to a bowl game.

Predictions?

Optimistic:

Utah: 31

ASU: 28

Realistic:

ASU: 35

Utah: 21

Q: What does BYU need to do to beat Wisconsin?

Cougars on Offense
Wisconsin's defense, thus far, has been very stellar. They are currently 5th in the nation in points allowed per game (15). They have held 5 of their 8 opponents to 10 or fewer points. They are 15th in the nation against the pass (195 yards per game) and 5th against the rush (90 yards per game). While Wisconsin's D has been stellar overall, in their two losses to Ohio State and Arizona State the Badgers gave up an average of 31.5 points.

Ohio State's key to success against the Badgers was their dual threat QB, Braxton Miller. Miller didn't have a ton of yards through the air (198) but he threw for four TDs and ran for 83 yards. Arizona State aired it out more against the Badgers and threw for 352 yards, but coincidentally scored all four of their TDs on the ground. These two games (which happen to be the only two good offenses the Badgers have faced) show that Wisconsin's D can be beaten.

Taysom Hill will need to have another big game. His skill set is very akin to Miller (though Miller is decidedly the more efficient passer as of right now). Wisconsin will look to do what most teams have done thus far against the Y: force Hill to throw. Hill has shown the last five games that he can throw when his protection is solid. The O-line will have to stand up and give him time to make his reads and give him a pocket to throw from. They were better at this against Boise State but still gave up three sacks and let Hill get hit far too often. If they cannot protect Hill in the passing game, the Badgers will be able to stack the box and shut down the run game.

Another key to success will be to have solid outings from multiple running backs. The Badgers are a physical and hard hitting team. Hill and Williams have both proved that they are tough players but taking too many shots leads to injuries--Hill blew out his knee last year and Williams has been sidelined with multiple injuries thus far. Lasike, Brown and Hine will need to step up and play well enough to keep Williams and Hill healthy.  





Cougars on Defense
The Cougars should mirrored what the Badgers will try to do: force the opponent to pass. Wisconsin is a physical team that likes to establish its run game immediately. Almost 2/3's of the Badgers offensive plays have been running plays. Not by coincidence, the two games that Wisconsin lost were the two games where they threw most. BYU will need to focus on shutting down the Badgers rushing attack early and often. If they allow Wisconsin to have short yardage to go on 3rd downs, it will be a long day for the Cougars. If the front 7 consistently holds UW to 3rd and 4 or longer, it will give the D a very good chance of keeping points off the board. 

As with the offense, the Cougars will have to be very prudent with their use of substitutions and make sure they are keeping guys fresh. Recently, Kyle Van Noy admitted that he and his fellow defenders are "beat up" due to the increased tempo of the offense. The Badgers whole game plan revolves around punching their opponent in the mouths and beating them up with a bruising running game. BYU will need to rotate the backers and linemen in order to prevent fourth quarter meltdowns.  

Q: How do you think BYU will handle the size if Wisconsin's offensive and defensive line?

I feel very strongly that BYU's front seven can hang with just about anybody in the nation. While the Cougars are giving up more running yards than they did in 2012, I attribute most of that to the increased number of plays the opponents are running due to the Y's offensive scheme rather than any real downgrade in toughness and ability. While the Cougs have fallen to 40th in the nation in terms of yards allowed per game on the ground, they have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns in 8 games. Wisconsin is the best running team that BYU will have faced but I feel confident that the D will be ready for their scheme and if the offense can put enough points on the board, the Cougars will hold the Badgers to a minimal score. 

On the other side of the ball, I am very frightened about the O-line. BYU has done a terrible job at protecting Hill all season. Fortunately for the Cougars, the Badgers are not a particularly blitz happy team (they are only 44th in the nation in sacks). Unfortunately for the Cougars, the Badgers are very good at staying in their gaps (they play a similar 3-4 to BYU's) and shutting down rushing attacks. Other than the Texas game, BYU has not gotten a great push at the line of scrimmage from the O-line. While Hill has had many explosive runs due to his speed around the edge, Williams has taken an absolute beating this year running between the tackles. It seems like every 5 yard run he has had, he's had to drag defenders with him. In BYU's current scheme, the run opens up the pass. If the Cougs cannot get a consistent push against UW, it could be ugly like the Utah game.  
 
Q: What has Taysom done to improve? 

It seems like there are many factors going into Taysom's improvement as a passer. I don't think I have seen any D-1 player progress so rapidly in a season before. Through three games, I was not sure Hill would ever become even an average passer. His passes were all coming out of his hand with way too much pepper and he was often nowhere near being on target. The last five games, Hill has looked much more comfortable. He is putting touch on his throws and most of his passes are accurate. It looks like he has a deeper understanding of the offense and the scheme the Cougars are running. A lot of credit needs to be given to his natural ability (he has a very lively arm). A lot of credit needs to go to his work ethic and diligence in learning the scheme. But, no student can be a great student without a great teacher. Robert Anae has tweaked the overall scheme of the offense just enough to allow Hill to flourish. He seems to have a good feel for where Hill is at as a passer and has done a good job in his playcalling. More than anything, though, it seems that he has gotten Hill and the rest of the offense to buy into the "Go Hard, Go Fast" mentality and has tutored Hill well. 

Q: Predictions for the game?

 It is put up or shut up time for the Cougs. They have not played a meaningful game in November for quite some time, now. This is a great opportunity to show whether or not they are a legitimate top 25 contender or just another run-of-the-mill team. The game is on national TV at a prime time slot against a Top 25 AQ team in front of a hostile crowd. I personally think the Cougars are for real and this 5 game win streak is not a fluke. I think they will show it, tomorrow. 

BYU 28, Wisconsin 21

Boise State Game Recap

The Cougars had a surprisingly easy win over the Broncos of Boise State on Friday night. By all measures, BYU dominated the game and it showed up on the scoreboard. Let's review my preview of the game and see how my predictions did (or did not) hold up.

Taysom Hill looks downfield against the Broncos. Courtesy washingtonpost.com.

Prediction: "Hill will complete 25/40 passes for 280 yards and rush 15 times for 75 yards. I think he'll get two touchdowns through the air and one more on the ground. I predict he will be sacked 3 times and throw an interception"
Reality: Hill finished the day 27/41 with 339 yards passing. He threw 3 touchdowns, had no interceptions, and ran for a touchdown. He had 18 runs for 69 rushing yards. He was sacked twice.
Analysis: I don't mean to toot my own horn, but..."toot!!!" I was very close on almost all of these statistics (though Hill had a better game than I even anticipated).
 
Prediction: "The receiver that will have the biggest game is BYU's all time leading receiver, Cody Hoffman."
Reality: Hoffman finished with 4 catches for 57 yards and a TD. His touchdown catch was another spectacular grab in which he stole away what probably should have been an interception by the Boise defender. Statistically, Mitch Matthews had a slightly better game (4 catches for 66 yards and a score) but the the whole receiving corps shined with 9 different players making at least one catch and 5 different players having 4 catches.
Analysis: Hoffman had a solid game. His touchdown put him in sole possession of all-time TD receptions by a Cougar. Congrats to him on that remarkable achievement. While I was expecting him to go over 100 yards, it was nice to see the whole receiving corps making plays and showing that Hoffman's not the only playmaker on this year's team.

Prediction: "Last week's game was a fluke and the D will come prepared. Craig Bills was sidelined with a head injury. Many of the big plays that were given up were due to blown assignments by his replacements. Also, KVN had an uncharacteristically poor showing. He will make up for it, today, and bring his A game in front of a national audience."
Reality: BYU's D forced 4 turonvers and only gave up 3 points by halftime. The Broncos scored two touchdowns later in the game when it was already in hand. The Cougars gave up 499 total yards of offense. KVN had 2 tackles and a pass break-up.
Analysis: The Cougars gave up a lot of yards but many of those can be attributed to the high volume of plays the Broncos ran (90) and Boise racking up stats after the game was well in hand. KVN had a solid but quiet game. He had a great play in which he bullrushed and batted the ball down as soon as it left the QB's hand. Teams are and will continue to run away from him. Overall, the D played well and there were never any real concerns that the Broncos might sneak out of Provo with a W. Still, nobody had any hits that topped Matt Payne's from 2004...

Prediction: "BYU's offense is finding its groove. They've scored at least 31 points every game in their 4 game winning streak. The D will bounce back from a poor game, last week. While I do not think they will dominate Boise, I think they will come away with a W. BYU 28, BSU 21"
Reality: The Cougars won 37-20 in a game that was not even that close. The Cougars did, in fact, dominate Boise. The D was solid and the Y came away with a W going into a bye week.
Analysis: I was wrong about the game being a close one that would be evenly matched. This game was over by halftime. I did not show enough confidence in the O, who again scored over 31 points. I don't mind being wrong when it means the Cougars did better than I expected.

As the Cougars head into a bye week, I will be off this weekend, as well, celebrating Halloween and  my baby daughter's 2nd birthday. Hopefully my writing fingers will be well rested and my lungs recovered for the big game in Madison. 

Go Cougs!!!

Utah vs. USC

After last week's game what do you feel is the general mood of Ute fans and their interest in the rest of the season? 

Down from cloud 9 for sure! I know I was very confident that Utah could pull off the W. It was like a hangover of depression for me this whole week looking forward to USC. I don't know what everyone was feeling but I do feel optimistic for this weeks game just disappointed from last week.

Is the year salvageable? What needs to happen for the remainder of the year for it to be considered satisfactory?

Is the year salvageable?! Absolutely! I expected the Utes to be 2-5 or 3-4 at this point when I looked at the schedule before the season started. I could be much happier from where we are, I feel like I have been very wrong and the Utes are far more impressive than I originally assumed but the Utes are still doing far better than I assumed. I'm not worried I feel like they are definitely going to a bowl.

I talked with a BYU fan who talked to me about BYU's record today? To throw it in my face? It was odd. Didn't Utah beat BYU? Hasn't Utah been playing either the same teams or more difficult? I don't know I felt like it was very odd to compare schedules, What's up with that Dylan?

What does the U need to do to beat SC?

The Utes need to run the ball consistently. Last week Utah went away from their run game and I didn't understand it. Utah needs to take advantage of an injured USC defense. The Utes need to wear down USC's defense by running and running consistently. It will open up the pass to the flat and to the outside. It's the same game plan that they need to prepare for against Stanford.

Utah's D will be too much for USC. They will bring pressure and force USC to make quicker decision. The Utes defense is more athletic than USC and will have a very positive day for the Utes D.

Thoughts on your backup QB? Can he be successful this year?

Adam Schulz is a stud! He is a fantastic player and I know everyone is drawing the conclusion that he is another John Hays and I couldn't disagree more. He is a sophomore with a lot of potential. John Hays wasn't all that bad either. He was someone that was consistent and perhaps wasn't the the best of QB's Utah has seen but he did well for the position he was in and I think Adam Schulz will do nothing but exceed that mark when his number is called. He has a cannon for an arm and I think if Travis Wilson goes down I'm not too worried. Adam will be just fine.

Utah - 33

USC - 21

Finny-fin-fin

Q & A: BYU vs. Boise State

Q: After last week's heroic performance, what do you expect out of Taysom Hill this week?

A: Taysom Hill has gotten better each game he has played this season. He seems to have a deeper understanding of the offense and is gaining important chemistry with his teammates. He has the tools to be a very good dual-threat QB and he is starting to tap into his potential more and more. Credit needs to be given to Robert Anae and his offensive staff, as well. They have modified the scheme and let Hill begin to flourish. It was nice, last week, to see Hill get a chance to throw downfield. His overall tremendous effort earned him ESPN's Impact Player of the Week award.

One modification that Anae needs to make, this week, is to keep Hill upright. It is never a good thing when your QB gets hit about 40 times in a game. Taysom was bruised and bloodied everywhere after the Houston game. No matter how tough he is, at some point, these hits will affect his game. BYU needs to protect him much better while he's in the pocket and limit the amount of times he runs (particularly planned runs). I think that Anae will make the necessary adjustments to keep his QB healthy for the difficult stretch of games coming up

With the adjustments, I think Hill's overall numbers will be more human this week. I believe Jamaal Williams will be called upon more to shoulder some of the load for Hill in the run game. Hill should have success when he does run since Boise is only 55th in the nation defending the run. He should also have success airing it out since Boise is only 79th in the nation defending the pass. While Boise gives up a lot of yards, they are doing fairly well at keeping teams out of the end zone (giving up 23 points a game). They have also had success getting to the QB (29th in the nation) and forcing turnovers (31st in the nation). Hill's line will need to hold up and he will need to take good care of the ball.

Given all of these factors, I predict Hill will complete 25/40 passes for 280 yards and rush 15 times for 75 yards. I think he'll get two touchdowns through the air and one more on the ground. I predict he will be sacked 3 times and throw an interception.

Can the O-line keep Hill on his feet? Courtesy Desert News.

Q: Which BYU receiver do you think will have the biggest performance this week?

A: Ross Apo (finally) had a strong game against Houston in which he caught 2 TD passes. He was slowed down in the second half and did not have as much of a factor in the final two quarters (1 catch for 5 yards). Mitch Matthews had a solid game with 4 catches for 68 yards. However, he was passive on a few balls and did not have as much of an impact as he could have. Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev gave the Cougars some good shorter routes and possession receptions.

Still, I think the receiver that will have the biggest game is BYU's all time leading receiver, Cody Hoffman. In the last two games, Hoffman has regained his 2012 form. Against Georgia Tech and Houston, he had 12 catches for 255 yards and 2 TDs. After a slow start to the season due to a nagging hamstring injury, a suspension and Hill's early season inaccuracy, Hoffman appears poised to have a big second half of the season. This game will be his last opportunity to win a meaningful game at LES and will be an opportunity to raise his draft stock as the BYU-Boise game is the only matchup on ESPN tonight.

Hoffman with another circus catch against Houston. Courtesy heraldextra.com.

Q: Will the defense bounce back after its poor showing against Houston?

A: Houston is the first team since Oregon State (13 games previous) to score over 21 points against BYU's defense. They scored 38 in the first half in a sloppy defensive performance by the Y. In the second half, however, Houston's O only accounted for 6 points even though they had almost identical amounts of yard gained. In the first half, BYU tackled poorly and were burned by big plays. In the second half, the D was more sure in their tackling (though still poor by their standards) and played more of a bend but don't break scheme. Bronco was more prudent in the use of blitzes in the second half and it allowed the D to do just enough to keep the game within reach.

Houston's offense spread BYU out and they appeared to have a distinct speed advantage over the Cougars. Bronco was smart in his adjustments and he was very successful in slowing down the red Cougars' offensive attack. It is important to note that the week after giving up 42 points to Oregon State last year, BYU's D responded by only giving up 17 to Notre Dame and 20 or less in the rest of their games. It is also important to note that 16 of Houston's points were scored by their defense or special teams.

I am inclined to think that last week's game was a fluke and that the D will come prepared. Craig Bills was sidelined with a head injury. Many of the big plays that were given up were due to blown assignments by his replacements. Also, KVN had an uncharacteristically poor showing. He will make up for it, today, and bring his A game in front of a national audience.

Look for KVN to bounce back after last week's game. Courtesy byucougars.com.

Q: Final prediction?

A: BYU's offense is finding its groove. They've scored at least 31 points every game in their 4 game winning streak. The D will bounce back from a poor game, last week. While I do not think they will dominate Boise, I think they will come away with a W.

BYU 28, BSU 21

How BYU's Past Opponents Have Fared, Thus Far

Virginia (2-5 overall, 0-3 ACC)

• After all is said and done, I think the loss to Virginia will be the most painful loss of 2013. While there were definitely extenuating circumstances (rain delay, horrendous playing conditions, first game with new offense, etc.) this is a really bad Virginia team. The only D-1 school they have beaten thus far is the Y. And it doesn't get any easier--three of their last five opponents are currently ranked in the top 15.
• Final Record Prediction: 3-9 (which would make it by far Bronco's worst loss as a Head Coach)

Texas (4-2 overall, 3-0 Big 12)

• The Longhorn team that stuck it to Oklahoma two weeks ago and the team that BYU walloped could not be more different. Against the Cougars, Texas looked very soft as BYU's struggling offensive line was far from physical than UT's front 7. It is hard to gauge how good (or mediocre) this Texas team is. Either way, they currently control their own destiny in the Big 12. They have three straight games they will be favored to win (Kansas, TCU and West Virginia) before they host #19 Oklahoma State and #10 Texas Tech and then head up north to face #8 Baylor. Those three games will decide whether this is a good Texas team or not.
• Final Record Prediction (Before Bowl): 8-4

Utah (4-3 overall, 1-3 PAC-12)

• Utah's up and down season has been well-documented by my colleague Brad Findeis. After coming off a major upset over then #5 Stanford, the Utes dropped an egg and lost to a middle of the pack Arizona team on the road. The Utes have three strong wins to their credit (USU, BYU and Stanford) and have been within striking distance in all 3 of their losses. It will be interesting to see how they finish but they should make it to a bowl game because they have 2 remaining games against the dregs of the PAC-12 (Wazzou and Colorado).
• Final Record Prediction (Before Bowl):  7-5

Middle Tennessee State (4-4 overall, 2-2 C-USA)

• This is a very mediocre team. Perhaps the biggest evidence of this fact is that BYU turned the ball over 5 times against them and still won by four touchdowns. The Blue Raiders face a patsy C-USA schedule that might allow them to get to 6 wins and a lower-tier bowl game.
• Final Record Prediction (Before Bowl): 6-6

Utah State (4-4 overall, 3-1 MWC)

• It's been a turbulent season for the Aggies. After having their best season in over half a century, hopes were high for this year's team (even with a new Head Coach). The Aggies started out hot against the Utes but couldn't hold on to finish with a win. They then crushed D-II Weber State and a bad Air Force team before losing a heartbreaker at the Coliseum against USC. The bottom fell out when their most invaluable player, Chuckie Keeton, suffered a season ending knee injury against the Cougs. BYU thumped them and then Boise did the same the next week. The Aggies destroyed a bad New Mexico team last Saturday and should be favored to win the remainder of its games and go to a bowl. If they win out, Utah State will be a solid, but underwhelming, 8-4 before the bowl.
• Final Record Prediction (Before Bowl): 8-4

Georgia Tech (4-3 overall, 3-2 ACC)

• The Yellow Jackets are a hard team to figure out. They are very inconsistent. They lost 3 games in a row and then beat Syracuse 56-0. Their success is predicated on how well their opponents know how to defend the option. BYU and Virginia Tech were very successful against the Jackets defensively and GT just didn't have enough firepower to stay with Miami late. GT plays Virginia, Pitt, #9 Clemson, Alabama A&M and then their rival Georgia. After last week's performances by Clemson and Georgia, I would say that all of these games are winnable for GT but I doubt they will win out.
• Final Record Prediction (Before Bowl): 7-5

Houston (5-1 overall, 2-0 AAC)

• Houston is a tricky team to predict from here on out. The only decent team (BYU) they have played thus far, they lost to. However, that loss was only by a point and Houston had every chance to win the game. The Cougars in red still have some statement games left. Their remaining 3 tough games are all on the road (Rutgers, #23 UCF, #20 Louisville) and their other 3 games they should win. I'm going to say that Houston wins all the games it should and gets a victory in one of the three statement games.
• Final Record Prediction (Before Bowl): 9-3