I was all set to do my weekly prediction when I received an update
last night. Previous to this update I received an different update that told me
that Oregon's QB was planning on playing with a sprained MCL. When I read that,
I literally wanted to jump with joy. Not that Mariota was injured. That isn't
cool and I hope he has a recovery as fast as he runs but rather, because it
gave Utah a chance to really upset Oregon and do what they do best, get after
the QB.
I was hopeful that Utah's offense would come out swinging and
leave nothing behind on the field. So I picked up my phone, looked at the
update, "Wilson out for Saturday's game against Oregon with a concussion.
Schulz named starter." My first reaction was, "well shoot."
After a few moments of deep breathing into a brown paper bag I realized that
Adam Schulz will have his first chance to start and finish a game. I have said
before that he hasn't been a great QB this season because the Utes have put him
in for the 2nd half of games that he either needed to come back to win or, try
to hold on to the lead/increase the lead. He hasn't been the most efficient
back up QB and I understand that. To be honest, I blame it on the fact that he
has never played. He isn't used to the game speed and by the time he finds a
rhythm the game is over. Now that justification aside he Schulz is 22-45 at
nearly 50% for 247 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He isn't an Alex Smith (yet) but he
can add a spark to the offense they seem to desperately need.
What people knock Schulz about:
Running ability
This to me is ridiculous. Sure Travis has shown Utah nation that
he can get out and run. But is Travis Wilson a prolific runner who breaks
tackles and makes things happen on his feet all the time? Absolutely not! He
has had some good runs and especially last week against ASU Wilson broke free
and converted some key first downs for Utah. He doesn't however WOW me as a
runner though. Compare Adam Schulz. Is Schulz a crazy out of the pocket
scrambler? Nope. Comparing Wilson's and Schulz's running style isn't fair
because we haven't seem very many Schulz runs. He has picked up a couple
crucial first downs with his feet and what I like about Schulz more than I like
about Wilson is how HARD the kid runs. He takes off and takes off with a purpose,
something you don't always see from Wilson.
Passing ability
Sure Schulz doesn't have as many completions as Wilson. Schulz has
played a fraction of the time and has a fraction of snaps to create some
chemistry with his wide receivers. One thing that might hurt Schulz in
this game against Oregon is not only how fast Oregon is (we will get to that in
a minute) but how Utah’s WR's don't seem to handle the fast ball (or the cheese
if you will) all too well. Utah's best WR's Drez Anderson frequently drops the
short cross route pass from Wilson because it looks like the ball is coming in
hot. Schulz has a cannon for an arm which could end up hurting the Utes more
than it helps because the WR's aren't used to catching his throws plus add the
rain factor (I know it never rains at Autzen...) and that could spell
D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R for the Utes. Or it could be a surprise that no one expects and
Utah could sneak up on Oregon.
Now let's talk about Oregon. The Ducks defense give up a whopping
17 points again which is good for the 10th best in the nation. Ducks defense
allows 317 yards for opposing offenses and takes 596 yards for their own
offense. The Ducks nearly double the amount of yards they give up. They are
fast, deep, fierce.
Since the lost last week I have a feeling the Ducks are looking to
really prove that last week as an anomaly and they should be in the top 10.
They are certainly looking for revenge and it doesn’t help the Utes that they
are the only team to beat Stanford this year.
Utah however, has been surprising on defense and lacking on
offense. I expect this game to be no different. Certianly I hope that Adam
Schulz can get a good rhythm going and show that he isn’t a Jon Hays type
backup and can compete for the starting QB position. Also I think the “Play
Conner Manning” movement is ridiculous. If he was the best QB he would be
playing. The fact of the matter is, he isn’t. He still needs work and there is
no reason to burn his red-shirt for one or three games. We have talent with
Travis and Adam and can snag two more wins before the season is over.
Last Word:
Utah tends to come out hot and Oregon has been starting slow. I
wouldn’t be surprised if Utah gets up early or at least keeps up early but
Oregon is a second half team and clearly Utah isn’t. Utah has lost leads and
games in the second half and especially the 4th quarter. Look for
Oregon to run a fast paced game because Utah doesn’t do well when teams snap
the ball with more than 20 seconds left on the play clock.
Prediction:
I don’t know why but I had a gut feeling going into this game and
I’m going to stick with it. Despite all my analysis I just have a weird feeling
like Utah might be able to pull this one off. They have a great coaching staff
and guys that are willing to listen. Look for the upset in Autzen.
Utah: 34
Oregon: 28
Go Utes.
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