It's been quite the past few weeks. Utah got embarrassed in the Coliseum by a USC team who was injured and frankly not as nearly as talented as years past. Utah held USC's offense to 230 yards and 19 points but failed to score a touchdown and put a dismal 200 yards and 3 points. It was less than impressive and I think gave most people the confirmation that the win against Stanford was in fact an anomaly. To that I have to agree and disagree. Here is why:
Utah has played every loss close. The biggest loss this year was against USC by 16 points. The game never felt out of reach for the Utes and they were just a couple well executed plays away from not necessarily winning the game but at least making the game closer. The Utes have a good squad and in some areas they are really excelling but they have a few weaknesses that are really hurting them. Those weaknesses I will talk about later when in my Arizona State game analysis. Just as a side note, he rest of Utah's losses were Arizona 11, UCLA 7, Oregon St. 3.
See a pattern?
Here is where I am not feeling so good. USC 16, Arizona 11, UCLA 7, Oregon State 3... Let's look at this chronologically. Oregon State 3, UCLA 7, Arizona 11, USC 16. Utah historically (in my very narrow point of view) has generally had a slow start to their season and pick things up as the season progresses. This year has been the opposite. We have seen a HUGE decrease in offensive production from the first game to this past game against USC. Let's take a look at total yards from Utah from the top: Utah State - 450, Weber State - 628, Oregon State - 539, BYU - 402, UCLA - 387, Stanford - 410, Arizona - 329, USC - 201.
is it just ironic that Utahs worst offensive productions were also the two worst losses of the season to date? I don't think so. Utahs defense has really started to step up and show some real progress. Unfortunately the offense has been slow, inconsistent, and sometimes down right difficult to watch at times. To be honest Utah has reminded me of the BYU from last year. An offense that doesn't deserve their good defense.
Let's take a look at Utah's production (or lack there of) over the last two years against Arizona State:
2012:
Utah: 7 AZ State: 37
Passing: 117 Passing: 372
Rushing: 92 Rushing: 140
TY: 209 TY: 512
Turnovers: 3 Turnovers: 0
Penalties: 6-53 Penalties: 8-51
2011:
Utah: 14 AZ State: 35
Passing: 199 Passing: 325
Rushing: 121 Rushing: 74
TY: 320 TY: 399
Turnovers: 5 Turnovers: 0
Penalties: 7-71 Penalties: 10-77
Clearly Utah has had very poor performance against this Arizona State team over the past two years. I do believe that the Utes are a much more complete team this year but I'm not entirely convinced they are a better team than Arizona State this year. One of the biggest upsides to this game is that it is at home.
This game probably wouldn't be a game if it was in Arizona. Utah has had a chance in most of their games purely because they have been at home. It is pretty clear that the Utah home crowd has helped cause false starts and silly penalties on the other team and has helped Utah. With the crowd behind the Utes, they could win.
Utah has played every loss close. The biggest loss this year was against USC by 16 points. The game never felt out of reach for the Utes and they were just a couple well executed plays away from not necessarily winning the game but at least making the game closer. The Utes have a good squad and in some areas they are really excelling but they have a few weaknesses that are really hurting them. Those weaknesses I will talk about later when in my Arizona State game analysis. Just as a side note, he rest of Utah's losses were Arizona 11, UCLA 7, Oregon St. 3.
See a pattern?
Here is where I am not feeling so good. USC 16, Arizona 11, UCLA 7, Oregon State 3... Let's look at this chronologically. Oregon State 3, UCLA 7, Arizona 11, USC 16. Utah historically (in my very narrow point of view) has generally had a slow start to their season and pick things up as the season progresses. This year has been the opposite. We have seen a HUGE decrease in offensive production from the first game to this past game against USC. Let's take a look at total yards from Utah from the top: Utah State - 450, Weber State - 628, Oregon State - 539, BYU - 402, UCLA - 387, Stanford - 410, Arizona - 329, USC - 201.
is it just ironic that Utahs worst offensive productions were also the two worst losses of the season to date? I don't think so. Utahs defense has really started to step up and show some real progress. Unfortunately the offense has been slow, inconsistent, and sometimes down right difficult to watch at times. To be honest Utah has reminded me of the BYU from last year. An offense that doesn't deserve their good defense.
Let's take a look at Utah's production (or lack there of) over the last two years against Arizona State:
2012:
Utah: 7 AZ State: 37
Passing: 117 Passing: 372
Rushing: 92 Rushing: 140
TY: 209 TY: 512
Turnovers: 3 Turnovers: 0
Penalties: 6-53 Penalties: 8-51
2011:
Utah: 14 AZ State: 35
Passing: 199 Passing: 325
Rushing: 121 Rushing: 74
TY: 320 TY: 399
Turnovers: 5 Turnovers: 0
Penalties: 7-71 Penalties: 10-77
Clearly Utah has had very poor performance against this Arizona State team over the past two years. I do believe that the Utes are a much more complete team this year but I'm not entirely convinced they are a better team than Arizona State this year. One of the biggest upsides to this game is that it is at home.
Let's also not forget that Utah has played the 2nd toughest schedule to date in the nation.
The fact that they are 4-4 with that schedule is pretty awesome.How much of a factor do you believe playing at home, again, will have for the Utes?
This game probably wouldn't be a game if it was in Arizona. Utah has had a chance in most of their games purely because they have been at home. It is pretty clear that the Utah home crowd has helped cause false starts and silly penalties on the other team and has helped Utah. With the crowd behind the Utes, they could win.
What does Utah need to do to slow down ASU's offense (6th in the nation in PPG)?
Here is where I get scared. Utah's pass defense has been steadily improving but I am afraid of our style of man-to-man defense may in fact be taken advantage of by a good quarterback and good wide receivers. I feel confident the Utes can play well enough to shut down Arizona States' rushing attack. It's AZ States' passing attack I'm nervous about.
What do the the Utes need to do to slow down ASU's offense? Get to the quarterback! It's as simple as that. The Utes have to dial up some blitz's and bring pressure to force early throws and ill advised throws.
What does the U offense need to do to get back on track?
Establish the run game. Sources say that Kelvin York (13) will be getting most of of the reps. He is our bruiser back that has great speed but has a tendency to bull people over and is a more physical style runner which may give the Utes a different look at offense. Bubba Poole will still play and is still a great back but perhaps he will have another 100 yards game and yet again prove he is the man for the job. Either way the Utes have to get their run game back on track. With out a good run attack the Utes will play the same way they have played the past two games... poorly.
How do you think ASU stacks up to the other teams you've played in the PAC-12 this year?
They are a middle grade team. I don't know. I think I'm super tainted because I thought they should have lost that Wisconsin game. If they had lost that game I don't believe they would be in the top 25. They are certainly a good team but I don't think they are atop the leaderboard in the PAC-12. They are however a really tough team that has size and speed. They certainly are a force to be reckoned with but aren't the greatest team in the PAC-12. They have losses to Stanford and Notre Dame (and Wisconsin in my book). One a really good team the other is a mediocre team. You can decide who is who.
What do the Utes need to do, in your opinion, to have this season be considered a "success?"
Make a bowl game. I'm different than most fans. I believed at the beginning of the season that Utah was only going to win 4 games. Right now the Utes have matched that. Anything above and beyond that is overachieving in my book. I do believe however with Utah starting off more hot than they usually do that they can now win 6 and get to a bowl game. It still isn't going to be easy because Washington State has a good offense and heavens knows the Utes have had a diffucult time beating Colorado at the end of the season. I'm happy now but I would be a whole lot happier if Utah got to a bowl game.
Predictions?
Optimistic:
Utah: 31
ASU: 28
Realistic:
ASU: 35
Utah: 21
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